Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 2.092067 2.213567 2.341410 2.486466 2.647125 2.820355 3.022261
2025-04-27 1.941766 2.113552 2.303267 2.530253 2.797082 3.104207 3.489615
2025-05-04 1.844700 2.047822 2.279954 2.568702 2.923902 3.354585 3.929622
2025-05-11 1.743206 1.962752 2.219987 2.549398 2.969043 3.499428 4.245102
2025-05-18 1.662637 1.893914 2.170549 2.533620 3.010370 3.635643 4.557726
2025-05-25 1.591924 1.831002 2.121973 2.511965 3.037781 3.750627 4.849394
2025-06-01 1.530201 1.774759 2.076917 2.489472 3.059059 3.855096 5.134631
2025-06-08 1.485821 1.737285 2.052577 2.491022 3.110982 4.004973 5.507402
2025-06-15 1.455289 1.715355 2.046274 2.515101 3.194598 4.207468 5.994772
2025-06-22 1.404333 1.664393 1.998656 2.478364 3.185802 4.265685 6.241218
2025-06-29 1.356215 1.615047 1.950676 2.437848 3.167498 4.305544 6.458447
2025-07-06 1.306846 1.562164 1.895569 2.383949 3.124655 4.300607 6.588851
2025-07-13 1.286815 1.548083 1.893341 2.407038 3.203264 4.507450 7.178254
2025-07-20 1.273791 1.542736 1.902631 2.447111 3.311212 4.776559 7.960018
2025-07-27 1.260366 1.536098 1.909465 2.483371 3.415235 5.050870 8.828503
2025-08-03 1.230732 1.506043 1.881694 2.465113 3.426826 5.154458 9.318877
2025-08-10 1.203935 1.478988 1.857062 2.450192 3.442538 5.267049 9.863377
2025-08-17 1.177038 1.450920 1.829856 2.429708 3.446835 5.357086 10.374175
2025-08-24 1.151379 1.423814 1.803040 2.408423 3.447982 5.440495 10.893063
2025-08-31 1.133558 1.407203 1.790946 2.409891 3.489516 5.612544 11.741550
2025-09-07 1.122548 1.399863 1.792152 2.432674 3.571145 5.881285 13.022759
2025-09-14 1.096522 1.370319 1.759222 2.397911 3.543385 5.903503 13.455777
2025-09-21 1.070669 1.340431 1.724939 2.359548 3.506543 5.901324 13.803157